매출 시뮬레이션
바이어 파이프라인
확정 오더
$
100%
협의 중 오더
$
반영률
75%
예상 오더
$
반영률
50%
신규 바이어 (추정)
$
반영률
30%
전년 대비 성장률
전년 실적
$
예상 성장률
+10%
평균성장률 반영
성장률 방식 사용
단가 & 환율 조정
평균 FOB 단가
$
단가 조정률
+0%
환율 (USD/QTZ)
Q
계절 & 카테고리 비중
S/S 비중
45%
F/W 비중
55%
MENS
40%
WOMENS
45%
KIDS
15%
시뮬레이션 결과
예상 매출 (파이프라인)
$8,400,000
예상 매출 (성장률)
$9,350,000
최종 예상 매출
$8,400,000
QTZ 환산
Q65,100,000
원가 시뮬레이션
평균원가 반영
과거 평균원가 데이터 반영
원부자재비 (변동비)
원사(Yarn) 단가 조정
+0%
기준단가: $5.50/kg → 적용: $5.50/kg
Loss율 (원사)
10%
부자재비 조정
+0%
기준단가: $0.80/pcs → 적용: $0.80/pcs
가공비 (변동비)
편직비 (Knitting)
$
염색비 (Dyeing)
$
봉제비 (Sewing)
$
난이도 계수
×1.00
외주/기타 가공비
자수 (Embroidery)
프린트 (Print)
워싱 (Washing)
포장/물류비
$
검품비 (QC)
$
고정비 (월간)
인건비 (본사)
$
인건비 (공장)
$
승급률
+5%
임차료
$
감가상각비
$
일반관리비
$
금융비용 (이자)
$
물량/단가 기준
예상 생산량(월)
pcs/월
평균 제품 중량
kg/pcs
물량 할인율
-5%
원가 시뮬레이션 결과
원사비 (단위당)
$2.12
가공비 (단위당)
$4.28
외주/기타비 (단위당)
$1.20
변동비 합계 (단위당)
$7.59
고정비 배부 (단위당)
$1.77
제품 단위원가
$9.36
월 생산원가
$935,750
손익 시뮬레이션
P&L 기본 설정
예상 매출액
$
변동비율
70%
고정비 (월)
$
판관비
$
영업외손익
환차손익
+0%
이자비용
$
법인세율
25%
시나리오 분석
📊 Base Case (현재 추세)
영업이익
$2,920,000
🚀 Best Case (물량↑ 단가↑ 환율유리)
물량 +15% | 단가 +5% | 환율 +3%
영업이익
$3,651,175
⚠️ Worst Case (물량↓ 원가↑)
물량 -15% | 원가 +10%
영업이익
$1,620,000
민감도 분석 변수
환율 변동
+0%
원사가격 변동
+0%
물량 변동
+0%
인건비 상승
+3%
P&L 시뮬레이션 결과
매출액
$10,000,000
- 매출원가 (변동비)
$7,000,000
= 매출총이익
$3,000,000
- 판관비
$80,000
= 영업이익
$2,920,000
± 영업외손익
$-5,000
- 법인세
$728,750
당기순이익
$2,186,250
매출총이익률
30.0%
영업이익률
29.2%
손익분기점 (BEP)
$833,333
공헌이익
$3,000,000
What-If 시뮬레이션
기본 변수 설정
연간 생산량
pcs
평균 FOB 단가
$
환율 (USD/QTZ)
Q
평균 단위원가
$
고정비 (연간)
Q
변수 조정 (What-If)
환율 변동
+0%
물량 변동
+0%
원사 가격 변동
+0%
FOB 단가 변동
+0%
예상 영업이익
$1,000,000
영업이익률
0.9%
기준 대비 변동
+$0
시나리오 비교
| 시나리오 | 환율 | 물량 | 원가 | 영업이익 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Base | Q7.75 | 1,000,000 | 기준 | $1,000,000 |
| 🚀 낙관 | Q8.37 | 1,100,000 | -5% | $2,108,148 |
| ⚡ 현재 | Q7.75 | 1,000,000 | +0% | $1,000,000 |
| ⚠️ 비관 | Q7.44 | 850,000 | +10% | $-553,333 |
| 💀 최악 | Q7.13 | 700,000 | +15% | $-1,333,913 |
민감도 분석 (±10% 변동 시)
영업이익에 미치는 영향 (변수별)
→ 물량이 이익에 가장 큰 영향을 미칩니다
손익분기점 분석
손익분기 물량
666,667 pcs
손익분기 환율
Q5.17
안전마진율
33.3%
손익분기까지
+333,333 pcs 여유
핵심 질문 답변
Q. "환율이 얼마까지 떨어지면 적자인가?"
A. Q5.17 이하
A. Q5.17 이하
Q. "물량이 얼마 줄면 적자 전환?"
A. 33% 이상 감소 시
A. 33% 이상 감소 시
Q. "원가 몇% 상승까지 감당 가능?"
A. +8.3% 까지
A. +8.3% 까지
1. 사전&사후 현황요약 (시뮬레이션)
| TEAM | Buyer | Forecast | Order Qty | OrderAmount | Order Amount (Shipped% 적용) |
사전 (Pre) | Ship Qty | Ship Amount | 사후 (Post) | Trend (YoY) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prod Amount | Profit Amount | Profit(%) | Prod Amount | Profit Amount | Profit(%) | |||||||||
| ADM | 163,395 | $1,781,256.03 | $862,514.65 | $723,985.23 | $138,529.43 | 16.06% | 79,118 | $862,514.65 | $766,455.11 | $96,059.54 | 11.14% | ▲ +5.6% | ||
| ━ 0.0% | ||||||||||||||
| 711,476 | $3,917,573.41 | $2,313,267.58 | $1,940,916.38 | $372,351.19 | 16.10% | 420,115 | $2,313,267.58 | $1,994,519.96 | $318,747.62 | 13.78% | ▼ -18.2% | |||
| TTL | - | 874,871 | $5,698,829.44 | $3,175,782.23 | $2,664,901.61 | $510,880.62 | 16.09% | 499,233 | $3,175,782.23 | $2,760,975.07 | $414,807.16 | 13.06% | ▼ -4.2% | |
| TEAM1 | 1,325,895 | $3,526,880.66 | $1,569,660.48 | $1,421,755.80 | $147,904.68 | 9.42% | 590,097 | $1,569,660.48 | $1,524,729.72 | $44,930.76 | 2.86% | ▲ +7.0% | ||
| ━ 0.0% | ||||||||||||||
| ━ 0.0% | ||||||||||||||
| 729,630 | $954,303.75 | $528,779.55 | $469,278.12 | $59,501.42 | 11.25% | 404,287 | $528,779.55 | $503,610.40 | $25,169.14 | 4.76% | ▼ -19.8% | |||
| 3,014,096 | $17,887,130.39 | $8,488,508.29 | $6,824,344.11 | $1,664,164.18 | 19.60% | 1,430,367 | $8,488,508.29 | $6,535,342.36 | $1,953,165.93 | 23.01% | ▲ +19.1% | |||
| 194,213 | $2,750,234.33 | $1,498,336.85 | $1,344,340.61 | $153,996.24 | 10.28% | 105,807 | $1,498,336.85 | $1,306,090.05 | $192,246.80 | 12.83% | ▼ -17.8% | |||
| 438,900 | $3,267,480.61 | $2,461,364.27 | $2,201,123.11 | $260,241.16 | 10.57% | 330,619 | $2,461,364.27 | $2,163,190.78 | $298,173.49 | 12.11% | ▼ -19.3% | |||
| 248,712 | $3,179,280.15 | $1,384,485.81 | $1,203,968.29 | $180,517.52 | 13.04% | 108,306 | $1,384,485.81 | $1,145,943.07 | $238,542.73 | 17.23% | ▲ +19.9% | |||
| TTL | - | 5,951,446 | $31,565,309.89 | $15,931,135.25 | $13,464,810.04 | $2,466,325.20 | 15.48% | 2,969,483 | $15,931,135.25 | $13,178,906.38 | $2,752,228.85 | 17.28% | ▼ -1.4% | |
| TEAM2 | 1,393,016 | $687,073.19 | $559,565.43 | $448,734.84 | $110,830.59 | 19.81% | 1,134,498 | $559,565.43 | $426,505.01 | $133,060.42 | 23.78% | ▼ -16.8% | ||
| 166,500 | $2,820,104.49 | $1,778,349.09 | $1,522,800.23 | $255,548.87 | 14.37% | 104,994 | $1,778,349.09 | $1,587,505.40 | $190,843.70 | 10.73% | ▼ -17.8% | |||
| TTL | - | 1,559,516 | $3,507,177.68 | $2,337,914.52 | $1,971,535.07 | $366,379.46 | 15.67% | 1,239,492 | $2,337,914.52 | $2,014,010.41 | $323,904.12 | 13.85% | ▼ -17.3% | |
| TEAM3 | 353,280 | $4,698,483.44 | $3,130,048.85 | $2,692,170.19 | $437,878.66 | 13.99% | 235,349 | $3,130,048.85 | $2,677,648.30 | $452,400.55 | 14.45% | ▲ +25.4% | ||
| 529,220 | $7,499,045.59 | $6,590,456.27 | $5,601,394.47 | $989,061.80 | 15.01% | 465,099 | $6,590,456.27 | $5,918,461.38 | $671,994.89 | 10.20% | ▼ -11.9% | |||
| ━ 0.0% | ||||||||||||||
| 974,888 | $2,469,667.26 | $1,254,171.65 | $1,114,644.27 | $139,527.39 | 11.13% | 495,077 | $1,254,171.65 | $1,144,657.07 | $109,514.58 | 8.73% | ▲ +29.4% | |||
| 2,428,210 | $11,043,582.99 | $7,465,793.48 | $7,081,113.15 | $384,680.33 | 5.15% | 1,641,542 | $7,465,793.48 | $7,418,350.10 | $47,443.38 | 0.64% | ▼ -18.8% | |||
| 698,544 | $2,802,546.82 | $1,492,977.96 | $1,202,999.95 | $289,978.01 | 19.42% | 372,129 | $1,492,977.96 | $1,181,849.47 | $311,128.49 | 20.84% | ▲ +9.6% | |||
| 447,450 | $1,314,761.80 | $595,649.16 | $505,227.43 | $90,421.73 | 15.18% | 202,715 | $595,649.16 | $504,507.92 | $91,141.25 | 15.30% | ▲ +17.6% | |||
| TTL | - | 5,431,592 | $29,828,087.90 | $20,529,097.37 | $18,197,549.46 | $2,331,547.92 | 11.36% | 3,411,911 | $20,529,097.37 | $18,845,474.24 | $1,683,623.14 | 8.20% | ▲ +7.3% | |
| TEAM4 | 7,641 | $596,333.41 | $505,659.33 | $422,585.09 | $83,074.24 | 16.43% | 6,479 | $505,659.33 | $460,166.83 | $45,492.50 | 9.00% | ▲ +22.3% | ||
| 1,783,152 | $17,225,856.31 | $8,546,685.56 | $7,218,441.94 | $1,328,243.62 | 15.54% | 884,718 | $8,546,685.56 | $7,055,714.95 | $1,490,970.61 | 17.45% | ▼ -18.5% | |||
| 4,421,128 | $52,335,767.19 | $24,472,725.75 | $22,821,045.33 | $1,651,680.41 | 6.75% | 2,067,363 | $24,472,725.75 | $22,319,123.05 | $2,153,602.70 | 8.80% | ▼ -5.3% | |||
| 2,004,636 | $4,166,308.51 | $2,912,620.05 | $2,501,116.07 | $411,503.98 | 14.13% | 1,401,418 | $2,912,620.05 | $2,706,555.43 | $206,064.61 | 7.07% | ▲ +2.2% | |||
| 2,472,316 | $20,637,672.19 | $18,034,688.85 | $16,619,876.59 | $1,414,812.26 | 7.84% | 2,160,488 | $18,034,688.85 | $16,108,787.92 | $1,925,900.93 | 10.68% | ▼ -14.6% | |||
| ━ 0.0% | ||||||||||||||
| TTL | - | 10,688,873 | $94,961,937.61 | $54,472,379.54 | $49,583,065.02 | $4,889,314.51 | 8.98% | 6,520,466 | $54,472,379.54 | $48,650,348.18 | $5,822,031.35 | 10.69% | ▼ -2.3% | |
| TEAM5 | 1,667,960 | $15,281,322.99 | $9,169,019.07 | $7,507,065.35 | $1,661,953.72 | 18.13% | 1,000,800 | $9,169,019.07 | $8,157,200.82 | $1,011,818.25 | 11.04% | ▲ +28.2% | ||
| 355,040 | $3,387,550.58 | $2,398,269.75 | $2,257,646.84 | $140,622.91 | 5.86% | 251,356 | $2,398,269.75 | $2,423,245.63 | ($24,975.88) | -1.04% | ▲ +17.4% | |||
| 962,688 | $12,114,234.05 | $6,342,470.32 | $5,918,794.13 | $423,676.19 | 6.68% | 504,020 | $6,342,470.32 | $6,212,736.39 | $129,733.93 | 2.05% | ▼ -10.5% | |||
| 937,101 | $9,496,554.54 | $4,187,216.56 | $3,613,889.24 | $573,327.32 | 13.69% | 413,186 | $4,187,216.56 | $3,869,647.44 | $317,569.12 | 7.58% | ▲ +24.0% | |||
| TTL | - | 3,922,789 | $40,279,662.16 | $22,096,975.70 | $19,297,395.56 | $2,799,580.14 | 12.67% | 2,169,362 | $22,096,975.70 | $20,662,830.28 | $1,434,145.42 | 6.49% | ▲ +14.8% | |
| TEAM6 | 4,349,300 | $30,941,275.94 | $26,157,194.87 | $24,728,458.56 | $1,428,736.30 | 5.46% | 3,676,819 | $26,157,194.87 | $24,071,353.72 | $2,085,841.15 | 7.97% | ▲ +9.4% | ||
| 1,727,733 | $18,856,154.51 | $8,589,280.80 | $7,909,871.66 | $679,409.14 | 7.91% | 787,010 | $8,589,280.80 | $7,927,115.07 | $662,165.73 | 7.71% | ▲ +6.1% | |||
| 568,768 | $7,228,283.46 | $4,993,803.48 | $4,143,771.61 | $850,031.88 | 17.02% | 392,944 | $4,993,803.48 | $4,517,588.04 | $476,215.45 | 9.54% | ▼ -17.4% | |||
| ━ 0.0% | ||||||||||||||
| 318,285 | $1,792,206.47 | $1,507,301.17 | $1,312,113.22 | $195,187.96 | 12.95% | 267,687 | $1,507,301.17 | $1,318,836.50 | $188,464.67 | 12.50% | ▲ +2.7% | |||
| 3,178,092 | $17,457,970.13 | $14,460,017.10 | $12,243,260.26 | $2,216,756.84 | 15.33% | 2,632,337 | $14,460,017.10 | $11,968,098.13 | $2,491,918.97 | 17.23% | ▲ +26.9% | |||
| 1,378,272 | $20,266,951.35 | $8,902,559.30 | $7,751,177.10 | $1,151,382.20 | 12.93% | 605,426 | $8,902,559.30 | $8,387,522.75 | $515,036.55 | 5.79% | ▼ -4.4% | |||
| TTL | - | 11,520,450 | $96,542,841.86 | $64,610,156.72 | $58,088,652.41 | $6,521,504.32 | 10.09% | 8,362,223 | $64,610,156.72 | $58,190,514.21 | $6,419,642.52 | 9.94% | ▲ +3.3% | |
| G/TTL | - | 39,949,537 | $302,383,846.54 | $183,153,441.33 | $163,267,909.17 | $19,885,532.17 | 10.86% | 25,172,170 | $183,153,441.33 | $164,303,058.77 | $18,850,382.56 | 10.29% | ▲ +1.7% | |